API
Agora, Inc.
$4.12
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.4% below fair value
You pay
$4.13
Bear
$4.26
Fair
$7.17
Bull
$10.37
Bear
$4.26
+3.1%
11% rev growth, 14% terminal margin
Fair
$7.17
+73.6%
18% rev growth, 18% terminal margin
Bull
$10.37
+151.2%
24% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (18%) × margin expansion to 18%
Terminal Value % of EV
67%
Implied Market Multiple
1.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.57 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.17 per share.
Warnings
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 18% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep