APH
Amphenol Corporation
$85.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.7% below fair value
You pay
$85.32
Bear
$49.80
Fair
$97.68
Bull
$160.42
Bear
$49.80
-41.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$97.68
+14.5%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$160.42
+88.0%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
46.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.1%
vs 21.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$144.57
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $97.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $144.57 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions