APH
Amphenol Corporation
$151.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.0% below fair value
You pay
$151.20
Bear
$93.94
Fair
$184.46
Bull
$303.07
Bear
$93.94
-37.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$184.46
+22.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$303.07
+100.4%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
43.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.3%
vs 21.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $186.71 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $184.46 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions