APH
Amphenol Corporation
$132.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.8% below fair value
You pay
$132.06
Bear
$93.20
Fair
$183.00
Bull
$300.68
Bear
$93.20
-29.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$183.00
+38.6%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$300.68
+127.7%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
38.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.89 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $183.00 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions