APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
$299.59
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 98.1% above fair value
You pay
$299.59
Bear
$120.96
Fair
$151.20
Bull
$181.44
Bear
$120.96
-59.6%
$10.08 × 12x P/E
Fair
$151.20
-49.5%
$10.08 × 15x P/E
Bull
$181.44
-39.4%
$10.08 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
10.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$341.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.08, the base-case value is $151.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $136.36.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $341.08 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples