APA
APA Corporation
$51.66
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.7% above fair value
You pay
$51.66
Bear
$18.87
Fair
$48.89
Bull
$88.91
Bear
$18.87
-63.5%
FCF $1363M × 8x
Fair
$48.89
-5.4%
FCF $1948M × 11x
Bull
$88.91
+72.1%
FCF $2532M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$47.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $48.89 per share. Range: $18.87 (bear) to $88.91 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential