APA
APA Corporation
$44.73
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.7% below fair value
You pay
$44.73
Bear
$18.71
Fair
$48.46
Bull
$88.13
Bear
$18.71
-58.2%
FCF $1363M × 8x
Fair
$48.46
+8.3%
FCF $1948M × 11x
Bull
$88.13
+97.0%
FCF $2532M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$45.23
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $48.46 per share. Range: $18.71 (bear) to $88.13 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential