AOSL
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited
$28.41
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 44290.6% above fair value
You pay
$28.41
Bear
$0.05
Fair
$0.06
Bull
$0.08
Bear
$0.05
-99.8%
$0.00 × 12x
Fair
$0.06
-99.8%
$0.00 × 16x
Bull
$0.08
-99.7%
$0.00 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.0$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.00)
Implied Market Multiple
7102.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$45.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.00 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $0.06 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.1x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $45.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 48% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing