AOS A. O. Smith Corporation
$57.28
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 11.1% below fair value

You pay $57.28
Bear $51.53
Fair $64.41
Bull $77.30
Bear $51.53 -10.0% $4.06 × 12x P/E
Fair $64.41 +12.4% $4.06 × 15x P/E
Bull $77.30 +34.9% $4.06 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.67 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.41 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples