AORT
Artivion, Inc.
$25.00
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.9% above fair value
You pay
$25.00
Bear
$11.30
Fair
$14.13
Bull
$16.94
Bear
$11.30
-54.8%
$0.42 × 14x P/E
Fair
$14.13
-43.5%
$0.42 × 18x P/E
Bull
$16.94
-32.2%
$0.42 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
59.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.13 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 101%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples