AORT
Artivion, Inc.
$22.90
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 512.2% above fair value
You pay
$22.90
Bear
$2.99
Fair
$3.74
Bull
$4.49
Bear
$2.99
-86.9%
$0.21 × 14x P/E
Fair
$3.74
-83.7%
$0.21 × 18x P/E
Bull
$4.49
-80.4%
$0.21 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.8x
0.21$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
109.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$38.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.21, the base-case value is $3.74 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.67 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples