AORT Artivion, Inc.
$22.46
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 35.0% above fair value

You pay $22.46
Bear $13.30
Fair $16.63
Bull $19.94
Bear $13.30 -40.8% $0.42 × 14x P/E
Fair $16.63 -25.9% $0.42 × 18x P/E
Bull $19.94 -11.2% $0.42 × 21x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 53.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.63 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 101%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples