AOMFF
Alstom S.A.
$19.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 178.0% above fair value
You pay
$19.74
Bear
$5.55
Fair
$7.10
Bull
$8.47
Bear
$5.55
-71.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.10
-64.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.47
-57.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.10 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1630 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions