AOMFF
Alstom S.A.
$18.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.3% above fair value
You pay
$18.44
Bear
$8.08
Fair
$10.58
Bull
$12.79
Bear
$8.08
-56.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$10.58
-42.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$12.79
-30.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 6.1% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $10.58 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1239 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions