AOMFF Alstom S.A.
$17.92
Platform & Compounding FCF 85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 122.4% above fair value

You pay $17.92
Bear $5.82
Fair $8.06
Bull $10.07
Bear $5.82 -67.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $8.06 -55.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $10.07 -43.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 29.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.1% vs 6.5% base

Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $8.06 per share.

Warnings

Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1388 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions