AOMFF
Alstom S.A.
$17.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 122.5% above fair value
You pay
$17.92
Bear
$5.81
Fair
$8.05
Bull
$10.06
Bear
$5.81
-67.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$8.05
-55.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$10.06
-43.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
29.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.1%
vs 6.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $8.05 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1383 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions