ANSS
ANSYS, Inc.
$374.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2093.0% above fair value
You pay
$374.30
Bear
$12.96
Fair
$17.07
Bull
$21.12
Bear
$12.96
-96.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.07
-95.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$21.12
-94.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
518.9x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.07 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions