ANSS
ANSYS, Inc.
$374.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 247.2% above fair value
You pay
$374.30
Bear
$76.23
Fair
$107.81
Bull
$141.19
Bear
$76.23
-79.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$107.81
-71.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$141.19
-62.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
98.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
30.3%
vs 12.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $107.81 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions