ANSS
ANSYS, Inc.
$374.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 132.2% above fair value
You pay
$374.30
Bear
$118.59
Fair
$161.22
Bull
$204.08
Bear
$118.59
-68.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$161.22
-56.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$204.08
-45.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
55.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.5%
vs 10.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $161.22 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 47% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions