ANSLF
Ansell Limited
$22.74
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.8% above fair value
You pay
$22.74
Bear
$13.80
Fair
$17.25
Bull
$20.70
Bear
$13.80
-39.3%
$1.15 × 12x P/E
Fair
$17.25
-24.1%
$1.15 × 15x P/E
Bull
$20.70
-9.0%
$1.15 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.15, the base-case value is $17.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.71.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 62%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 139% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples