ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
$97.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.9% below fair value
You pay
$97.19
Bear
$92.76
Fair
$101.11
Bull
$111.41
Bear
$92.76
-4.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$101.11
+4.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$111.41
+14.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.6%
vs 4.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $101.60 from 56 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.11 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions