ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
$77.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.5% below fair value
You pay
$77.26
Bear
$99.93
Fair
$112.76
Bull
$125.47
Bear
$99.93
+29.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$112.76
+45.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$125.47
+62.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
10.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $112.83 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $112.76 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions