ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
$141.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 23.9% above fair value
You pay
$141.44
Bear
$95.64
Fair
$114.12
Bull
$130.27
Bear
$95.64
-32.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$114.12
-19.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$130.27
-7.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.3%
vs 5.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (56 analysts)
$157.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $114.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $157.30 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions