ANDE
The Andersons, Inc.
$70.97
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 153.5% above fair value
You pay
$70.97
Bear
$22.40
Fair
$28.00
Bull
$33.60
Bear
$22.40
-68.4%
$2.80 × 8x P/E
Fair
$28.00
-60.5%
$2.80 × 10x P/E
Bull
$33.60
-52.7%
$2.80 × 12x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
10.0x
2.8$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$96.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.80, the base-case value is $28.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.92.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $13.92 (below our primary estimate by 50%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.67 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples