ANDE
The Andersons, Inc.
$77.85
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 44.4% above fair value
You pay
$77.85
Bear
$43.12
Fair
$53.89
Bull
$64.67
Bear
$43.12
-44.6%
$2.96 × 12x P/E
Fair
$53.89
-30.8%
$2.96 × 15x P/E
Bull
$64.67
-16.9%
$2.96 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.89 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $13.87 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $82.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples