ANDE
The Andersons, Inc.
$70.85
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.5% above fair value
You pay
$70.85
Bear
$48.04
Fair
$58.33
Bull
$68.63
Bear
$48.04
-32.2%
$2.96 × 14x P/E
Fair
$58.33
-17.7%
$2.96 × 17x P/E
Bull
$68.63
-3.1%
$2.96 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.33 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $13.82 (below our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $82.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples