AN
AutoNation, Inc.
$203.67
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.3% below fair value
You pay
$203.67
Bear
$204.48
Fair
$255.60
Bull
$306.72
Bear
$204.48
+0.4%
$17.04 × 12x P/E
Fair
$255.60
+25.5%
$17.04 × 15x P/E
Bull
$306.72
+50.6%
$17.04 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
17.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$243.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
5%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $17.04, the base-case value is $255.60 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples