AN
AutoNation, Inc.
$189.98
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.3% below fair value
You pay
$189.98
Bear
$221.37
Fair
$276.71
Bull
$332.06
Bear
$221.37
+16.5%
$19.30 × 12x P/E
Fair
$276.71
+45.7%
$19.30 × 15x P/E
Bull
$332.06
+74.8%
$19.30 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $247.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $276.71 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples