AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
$244.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.8% below fair value
You pay
$244.39
Bear
$176.02
Fair
$259.45
Bull
$347.81
Bear
$176.02
-28.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$259.45
+6.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$347.81
+42.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $307.77 from 94 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $259.45 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 18% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions