AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
$251.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.8% above fair value
You pay
$251.19
Bear
$161.12
Fair
$237.46
Bull
$318.31
Bear
$161.12
-35.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$237.46
-5.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$318.31
+26.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.9%
vs 13.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (94 analysts)
$326.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $237.46 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 18% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $326.33 (from 94 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions