AMWD
American Woodmark Corporation
$48.09
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.8% below fair value
You pay
$48.09
Bear
$91.00
Fair
$104.00
Bull
$117.00
Bear
$91.00
+89.2%
$6.50 × 14x P/E
Fair
$104.00
+116.3%
$6.50 × 16x P/E
Bull
$117.00
+143.3%
$6.50 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
6.5$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
121%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.50, the base-case value is $104.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 121% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples