AMWD
American Woodmark Corporation
$38.90
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.0% below fair value
You pay
$38.90
Bear
$81.03
Fair
$92.60
Bull
$104.18
Bear
$81.03
+108.3%
$6.50 × 14x P/E
Fair
$92.60
+138.0%
$6.50 × 16x P/E
Bull
$104.18
+167.8%
$6.50 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 121% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples