AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$22.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.6% above fair value
You pay
$22.55
Bear
$13.55
Fair
$18.69
Bull
$23.13
Bear
$13.55
-39.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.69
-17.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$23.13
+2.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.9%
vs 5.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.69 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 32% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions