AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$19.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.0% below fair value
You pay
$19.52
Bear
$20.62
Fair
$21.23
Bull
$23.89
Bear
$20.62
+5.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$21.23
+8.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$23.89
+22.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.6%
vs 3.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$26.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $21.23 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 32% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions