AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$23.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.8% above fair value
You pay
$23.23
Bear
$14.06
Fair
$19.39
Bull
$24.00
Bear
$14.06
-39.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$19.39
-16.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.00
+3.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.39 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 32% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions