AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
$28.50
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 105.6% above fair value
You pay
$28.50
Bear
$9.70
Fair
$13.86
Bull
$18.02
Bear
$9.70
-66.0%
ROTCE 4.3% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$13.86
-51.4%
ROTCE 5.7% → 0.36x TBV
Bull
$18.02
-36.8%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.53x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
5.7%
8.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.21x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$24.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
With ROTCE of 5.7% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.36x on $23.47 tangible book, implying $13.86 per share. DDM cross-check: $5.22.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.7%) is below the minimum investors require (8.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.22 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.33 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly