AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
$25.63
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.0% above fair value
You pay
$25.63
Bear
$11.65
Fair
$16.65
Bull
$21.64
Bear
$11.65
-54.5%
ROTCE 4.3% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$16.65
-35.0%
ROTCE 5.7% → 0.33x TBV
Bull
$21.64
-15.5%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.50x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.09x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.65 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.7%) is below the minimum investors require (9.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly