AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
$22.46
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.6% above fair value
You pay
$22.46
Bear
$11.51
Fair
$16.45
Bull
$21.38
Bear
$11.51
-48.7%
ROTCE 4.3% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$16.45
-26.8%
ROTCE 5.7% → 0.32x TBV
Bull
$21.38
-4.8%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.49x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.96x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.45 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.7%) is below the minimum investors require (9.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly