AMT
American Tower Corporation
$168.47
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.2% below fair value
You pay
$168.47
Bear
$204.59
Fair
$248.40
Bull
$292.21
Bear
$204.59
+21.4%
$9.85 FFO × 22x
Fair
$248.40
+47.4%
$9.85 FFO × 27x
Bull
$292.21
+73.4%
$9.85 FFO × 32x
Adjust Assumptions
27.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.85) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$209.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
At $9.85 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $248.40 per share. Dividend yield: 4.2%. DDM cross-check: $207.33.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify