AMSC
American Superconductor Corporation
$28.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 316.7% above fair value
You pay
$28.98
Bear
$5.38
Fair
$6.95
Bull
$8.78
Bear
$5.38
-81.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$6.95
-76.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$8.78
-69.7%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
198.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
42.5%
vs 16.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $52.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions