AMSC
American Superconductor Corporation
$51.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 114.7% above fair value
You pay
$51.84
Bear
$15.68
Fair
$24.14
Bull
$33.99
Bear
$15.68
-69.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$24.14
-53.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$33.99
-34.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
119.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.14 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 129% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions