AMSC
American Superconductor Corporation
$37.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 104.1% above fair value
You pay
$37.17
Bear
$14.10
Fair
$18.21
Bull
$23.01
Bear
$14.10
-62.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$18.21
-51.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$23.01
-38.1%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
261.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
46.4%
vs 16.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $52.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions