AMRZ
Amrize AG
$39.53
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
70%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.8% above fair value
You pay
$39.53
Bear
$28.00
Fair
$36.00
Bull
$44.00
Bear
$28.00
-29.2%
$2.00 × 14x
Fair
$36.00
-8.9%
$2.00 × 18x
Bull
$44.00
+11.3%
$2.00 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
2.0$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.00)
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$49.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using 5-year normalized EPS of $2.00 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $36.00 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 8.7x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 8.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.38 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing