AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$17.99
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 47.1% above fair value

You pay $17.99
Bear $10.48
Fair $12.23
Bull $13.97
Bear $10.48 -41.7% $0.85 × 12x P/E
Fair $12.23 -32.0% $0.85 × 14x P/E
Bull $13.97 -22.3% $0.85 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.5x
0.85$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (17 analysts) $19.75
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.85, the base-case value is $12.23 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 284%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.75 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples