AMRX
Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$19.91
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 62.8% above fair value
You pay
$19.91
Bear
$10.48
Fair
$12.23
Bull
$13.97
Bear
$10.48
-47.4%
$0.85 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.23
-38.6%
$0.85 × 14x P/E
Bull
$13.97
-29.8%
$0.85 × 17x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.5x
0.85$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$23.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.85, the base-case value is $12.23 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 284%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.20 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples