AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$12.42
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 3.5% above fair value

You pay $12.42
Bear $10.29
Fair $12.00
Bull $13.73
Bear $10.29 -17.1% $0.71 × 12x P/E
Fair $12.00 -3.3% $0.71 × 14x P/E
Bull $13.73 +10.5% $0.71 × 17x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.33 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.00 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 222%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.33 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples