AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$26.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.7% below fair value
You pay
$26.77
Bear
$29.70
Fair
$38.09
Bull
$45.66
Bear
$29.70
+11.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$38.09
+42.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$45.66
+70.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.0%
vs 6.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$21.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
79%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $38.09 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.25 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions