AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$18.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.1% below fair value
You pay
$18.41
Bear
$20.78
Fair
$25.61
Bull
$29.79
Bear
$20.78
+12.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$25.61
+39.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$29.79
+61.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.61 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions