AMN
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.
$32.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.5% below fair value
You pay
$32.37
Bear
$46.26
Fair
$59.36
Bull
$71.06
Bear
$46.26
+42.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$59.36
+83.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$71.06
+119.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
9.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.1%
vs 6.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 160% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions