AMN
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.
$37.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.1% below fair value
You pay
$37.20
Bear
$62.10
Fair
$62.10
Bull
$67.63
Bear
$62.10
+66.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$62.10
+66.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$67.63
+81.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.1%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$37.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $62.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $37.75 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions