AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
$47.88
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 77.9% above fair value
You pay
$47.88
Bear
$20.18
Fair
$26.91
Bull
$33.64
Bear
$20.18
-57.8%
$1.68 × 12x
Fair
$26.91
-43.8%
$1.68 × 16x
Bull
$33.64
-29.7%
$1.68 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.68$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.68)
Implied Market Multiple
28.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$78.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.68 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $26.91 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.7x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.75 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing