AMGN
Amgen Inc.
$378.87
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.6% above fair value
You pay
$378.87
Bear
$243.10
Fair
$283.62
Bull
$324.13
Bear
$243.10
-35.8%
$17.78 × 12x P/E
Fair
$283.62
-25.1%
$17.78 × 14x P/E
Bull
$324.13
-14.4%
$17.78 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $364.71 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $283.62 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $431.97 (above our primary estimate by 74%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $364.71 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples