AMGN
Amgen Inc.
$379.78
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.6% above fair value
You pay
$379.78
Bear
$170.76
Fair
$199.22
Bull
$227.68
Bear
$170.76
-55.0%
$14.23 × 12x P/E
Fair
$199.22
-47.5%
$14.23 × 14x P/E
Bull
$227.68
-40.0%
$14.23 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
14.23$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$393.72
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $14.23, the base-case value is $199.22 per share. DDM cross-check: $431.97.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $431.97 (above our primary estimate by 117%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $393.72 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples