AMGN
Amgen Inc.
$337.60
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.0% above fair value
You pay
$337.60
Bear
$239.15
Fair
$279.00
Bull
$318.86
Bear
$239.15
-29.2%
$17.78 × 12x P/E
Fair
$279.00
-17.4%
$17.78 × 14x P/E
Bull
$318.86
-5.6%
$17.78 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $349.33 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $279.00 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $466.71 (above our primary estimate by 88%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $349.33 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples