AME
AMETEK, Inc.
$224.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.9% above fair value
You pay
$224.52
Bear
$124.16
Fair
$164.06
Bull
$202.06
Bear
$124.16
-44.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$164.06
-26.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$202.06
-10.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $247.73 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $164.06 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $247.73 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions