AME
AMETEK, Inc.
$235.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.5% above fair value
You pay
$235.17
Bear
$109.67
Fair
$149.32
Bull
$188.02
Bear
$109.67
-53.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$149.32
-36.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$188.02
-20.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
32.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.6%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$273.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $149.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $273.00 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions