AME
AMETEK, Inc.
$233.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.3% above fair value
You pay
$233.98
Bear
$124.36
Fair
$164.42
Bull
$202.54
Bear
$124.36
-46.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$164.42
-29.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$202.54
-13.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
33.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.0%
vs 8.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $259.78 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $164.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $259.78 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions