AME
AMETEK, Inc.
$248.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.0% above fair value
You pay
$248.17
Bear
$112.21
Fair
$155.15
Bull
$197.59
Bear
$112.21
-54.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$155.15
-37.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$197.59
-20.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
34.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.3%
vs 10.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$277.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $155.15 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $277.00 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions