AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
$552.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 381.8% above fair value
You pay
$552.72
Bear
$70.64
Fair
$114.73
Bull
$166.34
Bear
$70.64
-87.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$114.73
-79.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$166.34
-69.9%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
158.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
39.3%
vs 17.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (71 analysts)
$613.45
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $114.73 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $613.45 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions