AMCR
Amcor plc
$42.38
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.7% above fair value
You pay
$42.38
Bear
$29.31
Fair
$36.64
Bull
$43.97
Bear
$29.31
-30.8%
$2.38 × 12x P/E
Fair
$36.64
-13.5%
$2.38 × 15x P/E
Bull
$43.97
+3.8%
$2.38 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.4x
2.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$48.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.38, the base-case value is $36.64 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 87% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples