AMCR
Amcor plc
$45.44
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.3% above fair value
You pay
$45.44
Bear
$35.20
Fair
$44.00
Bull
$52.80
Bear
$35.20
-22.5%
$2.87 × 12x P/E
Fair
$44.00
-3.2%
$2.87 × 15x P/E
Bull
$52.80
+16.2%
$2.87 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.78 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.00 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 79%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 97% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples