AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$4.04
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
70%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 37.6% above fair value
You pay
$4.04
Bear
$1.80
Fair
$2.94
Bull
$4.06
Bear
$1.80
-55.4%
$0.39 × 7x + net cash
Fair
$2.94
-27.3%
$0.39 × 10x + net cash
Bull
$4.06
+0.4%
$0.39 × 12x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.39)
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.52 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.94 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $4.52 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing