AMAL
Amalgamated Financial Corp.
$41.29
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.3% below fair value
You pay
$41.29
Bear
$32.11
Fair
$49.90
Bull
$60.58
Bear
$32.11
-22.2%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.26x TBV
Fair
$49.90
+20.9%
ROTCE 13.4% → 1.97x TBV
Bull
$60.58
+46.7%
ROTCE 15.4% → 2.39x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.58x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.90 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly