AMAL
Amalgamated Financial Corp.
$47.33
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.5% below fair value
You pay
$47.33
Bear
$33.29
Fair
$51.74
Bull
$62.81
Bear
$33.29
-29.7%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.28x TBV
Fair
$51.74
+9.3%
ROTCE 13.4% → 1.98x TBV
Bull
$62.81
+32.7%
ROTCE 15.4% → 2.41x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.4%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.81x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$54.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.4% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.98x on $26.11 tangible book, implying $51.74 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly