AM
Antero Midstream Corporation
$22.75
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.7% above fair value
You pay
$22.75
Bear
$14.03
Fair
$17.54
Bull
$21.05
Bear
$14.03
-38.3%
$1.03 × 12x P/E
Fair
$17.54
-22.9%
$1.03 × 15x P/E
Bull
$21.05
-7.5%
$1.03 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.54 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 105% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples