AM
Antero Midstream Corporation
$20.64
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.0% above fair value
You pay
$20.64
Bear
$10.32
Fair
$12.90
Bull
$15.48
Bear
$10.32
-50.0%
$0.86 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.90
-37.5%
$0.86 × 15x P/E
Bull
$15.48
-25.0%
$0.86 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.86$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$23.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.86, the base-case value is $12.90 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 105% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.75 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples