ALX
Alexander's, Inc.
$276.21
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.7% above fair value
You pay
$276.21
Bear
$189.63
Fair
$230.74
Bull
$271.86
Bear
$189.63
-31.3%
$12.39 FFO × 12x
Fair
$230.74
-16.5%
$12.39 FFO × 15x
Bull
$271.86
-1.6%
$12.39 FFO × 18x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($12.39) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Summary
At $12.39 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $230.74 per share. Dividend yield: 6.5%. DDM cross-check: $335.45.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $335.45 (45% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify