ALX
Alexander's, Inc.
$248.39
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.8% above fair value
You pay
$248.39
Bear
$194.70
Fair
$237.08
Bull
$279.47
Bear
$194.70
-21.6%
$12.99 FFO × 12x
Fair
$237.08
-4.6%
$12.99 FFO × 15x
Bull
$279.47
+12.5%
$12.99 FFO × 18x
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($12.99) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Summary
At $12.99 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $237.08 per share. Dividend yield: 7.2%. DDM cross-check: $335.45.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $335.45 (41% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify