ALV
Autoliv, Inc.
$115.94
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.4% below fair value
You pay
$115.94
Bear
$210.32
Fair
$248.56
Bull
$286.80
Bear
$210.32
+81.4%
$9.56 × 22x P/E
Fair
$248.56
+114.4%
$9.56 × 26x P/E
Bull
$286.80
+147.4%
$9.56 × 30x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
26.0x
9.56$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$126.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
96%
Summary
Applying a 26x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.56, the base-case value is $248.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $221.97.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $126.60 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 96% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples