ALSMY
Alstom S.A.
$1.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 114.7% above fair value
You pay
$1.91
Bear
$0.74
Fair
$0.89
Bull
$1.02
Bear
$0.74
-61.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$0.89
-53.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1.02
-46.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.89 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1629 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions