ALSMY
Alstom S.A.
$1.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 79.4% above fair value
You pay
$1.82
Bear
$0.78
Fair
$1.01
Bull
$1.23
Bear
$0.78
-57.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$1.01
-44.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1.23
-32.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
27.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.1%
vs 6.8% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.01 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1385 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions