ALSMY
Alstom S.A.
$1.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.6% above fair value
You pay
$1.74
Bear
$1.02
Fair
$1.30
Bull
$1.56
Bear
$1.02
-41.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$1.30
-25.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1.56
-10.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.9%
vs 6.6% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.30 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1239 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions