ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$58.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.4% above fair value
You pay
$58.68
Bear
$38.17
Fair
$53.16
Bull
$68.00
Bear
$38.17
-34.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$53.16
-9.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$68.00
+15.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 10.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$62.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $53.16 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions