ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$43.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.5% below fair value
You pay
$43.80
Bear
$33.69
Fair
$44.94
Bull
$55.67
Bear
$33.69
-23.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.94
+2.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$55.67
+27.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
20.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.94 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions