ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$56.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.1% above fair value
You pay
$56.48
Bear
$37.89
Fair
$52.76
Bull
$67.49
Bear
$37.89
-32.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$52.76
-6.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$67.49
+19.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.2%
vs 10.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$62.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $52.76 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions