ALNY
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$223.94
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.3% below fair value
You pay
$223.94
Bear
$140.20
Fair
$316.93
Bull
$456.17
Bear
$140.20
-37.4%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$316.93
+41.5%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$456.17
+103.7%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
61%
Implied Market Multiple
7.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$347.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 19% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $316.93 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep