ALLE
Allegion plc
$150.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.7% below fair value
You pay
$150.48
Bear
$123.38
Fair
$178.61
Bull
$233.95
Bear
$123.38
-18.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$178.61
+18.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$233.95
+55.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.8%
vs 10.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$164.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $178.61 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions