ALKS
Alkermes plc
$39.08
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.8% below fair value
You pay
$39.08
Bear
$35.93
Fair
$41.92
Bull
$47.91
Bear
$35.93
-8.1%
$2.86 × 13x P/E
Fair
$41.92
+7.3%
$2.86 × 15x P/E
Bull
$47.91
+22.6%
$2.86 × 17x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.6x
2.86$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$58.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.86, the base-case value is $41.92 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 100%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.83 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples