ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
$78.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 87.8% below fair value
You pay
$78.16
Bear
$323.14
Fair
$639.83
Bull
$1,047.53
Bear
$323.14
+313.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$639.83
+718.6%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,047.53
+1240.2%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
7.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.2%
vs 21.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$134.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
376%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $639.83 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 12% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $134.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 376% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions