ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
$70.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.9% below fair value
You pay
$70.05
Bear
$317.67
Fair
$629.01
Bull
$1,029.83
Bear
$317.67
+353.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$629.01
+797.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,029.83
+1370.1%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.1%
vs 21.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$119.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
425%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $629.01 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 12% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $119.83 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 425% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions