ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
$80.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.4% below fair value
You pay
$80.31
Bear
$176.67
Fair
$280.52
Bull
$390.56
Bear
$176.67
+120.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$280.52
+249.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$390.56
+386.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.13 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $280.52 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 12% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $109.13 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 224% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions