ALGN
Align Technology, Inc.
$169.78
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.9% above fair value
You pay
$169.78
Bear
$102.94
Fair
$128.68
Bull
$154.42
Bear
$102.94
-39.4%
$5.74 × 13x P/E
Fair
$128.68
-24.2%
$5.74 × 17x P/E
Bull
$154.42
-9.1%
$5.74 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $204.90 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $128.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $204.90 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples