ALGN
Align Technology, Inc.
$163.61
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.5% above fair value
You pay
$163.61
Bear
$102.63
Fair
$128.29
Bull
$153.95
Bear
$102.63
-37.3%
$5.74 × 13x P/E
Fair
$128.29
-21.6%
$5.74 × 17x P/E
Bull
$153.95
-5.9%
$5.74 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $203.60 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $128.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $203.60 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples