ALGN
Align Technology, Inc.
$141.30
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.6% above fair value
You pay
$141.30
Bear
$75.58
Fair
$94.48
Bull
$113.38
Bear
$75.58
-46.5%
$5.65 × 13x P/E
Fair
$94.48
-33.1%
$5.65 × 17x P/E
Bull
$113.38
-19.8%
$5.65 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.7x
5.65$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$199.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.65, the base-case value is $94.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $199.20 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples