ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
$20.84
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.6% above fair value
You pay
$20.84
Bear
$14.42
Fair
$18.03
Bull
$21.64
Bear
$14.42
-30.8%
$0.89 FFO × 16x
Fair
$18.03
-13.5%
$0.89 FFO × 20x
Bull
$21.64
+3.8%
$0.89 FFO × 23x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.89) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
23.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.93 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.03 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify