ALEX Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
$20.84
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 15.6% above fair value

You pay $20.84
Bear $14.42
Fair $18.03
Bull $21.64
Bear $14.42 -30.8% $0.89 FFO × 16x
Fair $18.03 -13.5% $0.89 FFO × 20x
Bull $21.64 +3.8% $0.89 FFO × 23x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.89) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 23.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.93 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.03 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify