ALB
Albemarle Corporation
$104.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.7% below fair value
You pay
$104.59
Bear
$95.40
Fair
$142.59
Bull
$191.57
Bear
$95.40
-8.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$142.59
+36.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$191.57
+83.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.5%
vs 12.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$194.56
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $142.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $194.56 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 53% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions