AL
Air Lease Corporation
$65.00
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.3% below fair value
You pay
$65.00
Bear
$102.65
Fair
$128.32
Bull
$153.99
Bear
$102.65
+57.9%
$9.29 × 13x P/E
Fair
$128.32
+97.4%
$9.29 × 16x P/E
Bull
$153.99
+136.9%
$9.29 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $128.32 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $30.64 (below our primary estimate by 79%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 130% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples