AL
Air Lease Corporation
$65.00
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.5% below fair value
You pay
$65.00
Bear
$119.54
Fair
$149.43
Bull
$179.32
Bear
$119.54
+83.9%
$9.29 × 13x P/E
Fair
$149.43
+129.9%
$9.29 × 16x P/E
Bull
$179.32
+175.9%
$9.29 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.1x
9.29$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
149%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.29, the base-case value is $149.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.64.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $30.64 (below our primary estimate by 79%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $60.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 149% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples