AlphaMadera

AKR Acadia Realty Trust

$20.72

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 5.9% above fair value

You pay $20.72

Bear $15.90

Fair $19.57

Bull $23.23

Bear $15.90 -23.3% $1.25 FFO × 13x

Fair $19.57 -5.6% $1.25 FFO × 17x

Bull $23.23 +12.1% $1.25 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

16.8x

FFO per Share

1.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.25) × retail P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (12 analysts) $24.50

Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Summary

At $1.25 FFO/share with a 17x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $19.57 per share. Dividend yield: 3.9%. DDM cross-check: $16.49.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify