AKR
Acadia Realty Trust
$18.53
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.3% below fair value
You pay
$18.53
Bear
$15.90
Fair
$19.57
Bull
$23.23
Bear
$15.90
-14.2%
$1.25 FFO × 13x
Fair
$19.57
+5.6%
$1.25 FFO × 17x
Bull
$23.23
+25.4%
$1.25 FFO × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.8x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.25) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$23.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
At $1.25 FFO/share with a 17x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $19.57 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%. DDM cross-check: $16.49.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify