AKAM
Akamai Technologies, Inc.
$110.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2339.4% above fair value
You pay
$110.69
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$4.54
Bull
$11.60
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.54
-95.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.60
-89.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
57.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.1%
vs 6.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$159.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.54 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 102% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $159.50 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions