AKAM
Akamai Technologies, Inc.
$93.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1937.6% above fair value
You pay
$93.53
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$4.59
Bull
$11.74
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.59
-95.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.74
-87.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
50.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.4%
vs 6.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$161.53
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.59 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 102% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $161.53 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions