AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
$275.44
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.5% below fair value
You pay
$275.44
Bear
$236.91
Fair
$360.07
Bull
$433.97
Bear
$236.91
-14.0%
ROTCE 11.1% → 2.13x TBV
Fair
$360.07
+30.7%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.24x TBV
Bull
$433.97
+57.6%
ROTCE 17.1% → 3.91x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.32x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $288.33 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $360.07 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $151.15 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $288.33 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly