AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
$254.82
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.1% below fair value
You pay
$254.82
Bear
$233.30
Fair
$354.58
Bull
$427.36
Bear
$233.30
-8.4%
ROTCE 11.1% → 2.13x TBV
Fair
$354.58
+39.2%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.23x TBV
Bull
$427.36
+67.7%
ROTCE 17.1% → 3.90x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.15x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $268.25 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $354.58 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $150.80 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $268.25 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly