AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
$269.90
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.1% below fair value
You pay
$269.90
Bear
$265.26
Fair
$403.17
Bull
$474.02
Bear
$265.26
-1.7%
ROTCE 11.1% → 2.24x TBV
Fair
$403.17
+49.4%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.40x TBV
Bull
$474.02
+75.6%
ROTCE 17.1% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
14.9%
7.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.28x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$327.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
With ROTCE of 14.9% vs. 7.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.40x on $118.50 tangible book, implying $403.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $194.95.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $194.95 (52% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly