AIPUF
Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited
$1.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.6% below fair value
You pay
$1.58
Bear
$1.30
Fair
$2.75
Bull
$4.75
Bear
$1.30
-17.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.75
+74.3%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.75
+200.7%
31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
24.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
49%
Implied Market Multiple
36.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.9%
vs 24.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.75 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from THB into USD using USDTHB at 0.0298 USD per THB.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions