AIN
Albany International Corp.
$63.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 56.4% above fair value
You pay
$63.15
Bear
$32.47
Fair
$40.39
Bull
$47.31
Bear
$32.47
-48.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$40.39
-36.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.31
-25.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 5.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$68.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $40.39 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $68.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions