AIN
Albany International Corp.
$62.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 81.2% above fair value
You pay
$62.13
Bear
$26.97
Fair
$34.30
Bull
$40.70
Bear
$26.97
-56.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$34.30
-44.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$40.70
-34.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
28.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.30 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions