AHR
American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
$57.16
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 75.9% above fair value
You pay
$57.16
Bear
$25.78
Fair
$32.50
Bull
$39.22
Bear
$25.78
-54.9%
$1.24 FFO × 18x
Fair
$32.50
-43.1%
$1.24 FFO × 23x
Bull
$39.22
-31.4%
$1.24 FFO × 29x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.24) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
45.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.57 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.50 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.7% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (28% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.57 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify