AHR
American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
$54.72
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 88.9% above fair value
You pay
$54.72
Bear
$22.93
Fair
$28.97
Bull
$35.00
Bear
$22.93
-58.1%
$1.43 FFO × 18x
Fair
$28.97
-47.1%
$1.43 FFO × 23x
Bull
$35.00
-36.0%
$1.43 FFO × 29x
Adjust Assumptions
23.4x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.43) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
38.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$64.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
At $1.43 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.97 per share. Dividend yield: 1.8%. DDM cross-check: $18.64.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.8% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.43 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify