AHCO
AdaptHealth Corp.
$10.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 76.7% below fair value
You pay
$10.22
Bear
$24.24
Fair
$43.88
Bull
$65.68
Bear
$24.24
+137.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$43.88
+329.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$65.68
+542.7%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
9.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.9%
vs 15.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.80 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.80 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 272% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions